Today is Groundhog Day, Candlemas, and the Presentation of Jesus at the Temple. Choose your holiday.
Since the northeastern United States is in a deep-freeze, I choose Groundhog Day. The rule is that if the groundhog sees its shadow, there will be another six weeks of winter. I regret to report that America’s groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow today, meaning that we will experience the full brunt of winter for the next six weeks.
Because the northeastern US was under sunny skies today, doubtless every other regional groundhog also saw its shadow today.
But what does it matter? According to the calendar, it is exactly six weeks until the vernal (spring) equinox. That is forty-six days from today. Then spring will be here officially. I was just hoping that oversized rat would give us hope for a warming trend later this month. Sadly, that is not the case in 2026.
How the tradition started
Groundhog Day started when Pennsylvania Germans (a.k.a. Pennsylvania Dutch) brought their traditions surrounding Candlemas with them to America. Candlemas for Germans was a kind of new year, when debts are settled and employment contracts either end or get renewed. It was the beginning of the “farmer’s year”.
It was a sign to farmers to get ready for the spring planting season and to check their livestock food supplies to make sure they still had half of it left.
Thus, it would make sense that weather forecasting is a central part of the day. A farmer needs to know when to plan the spring planting and how much livestock feed to use for the rest of the cold season. Hence, they turned to the most scientific of weather forecasting tools—a badger (Dach).
Sonnt sich der Dachs in der Lichtmess Woche, so geht er auf vier Wochen wieder zu Loche. (“If the badger sunbathes during Candlemas-week, for four more weeks he will be back in his hole.”)
For the Pennsylvania Germans, the closest thing was the groundhog. Why do we specify six weeks and not the four mentioned in the German maxim? I can only speculate that it is due to the harsher nature of Pennsylvania winters compared to German winters.
How accurate is the groundhog?
Not accurate at all. Meteorologists who have studied it found the animal is accurate at best 47 per cent of the time when it came to predicting an early spring. At worst, the rodent was 36 per cent accurate. The National Centers for Environmental Information found that Phil was right 30 per cent of the time between 2016 and 2025.
A coin flip would yield a more accurate prediction.
So that is good news for those of us shivering in near record low temperatures this winter. It means that we have a decent chance for a warming trend later this month. Believe me, we need it.
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